Avatar: The Way of Water is set up to fall to the lowest rank yet on the domestic box office chart this weekend. The belated James Cameron sequel opened on December 16, 2022, and held the No. 1 spot on the domestic chart every weekend until the one-two punch of Knock at the Cabin and 80 for Brady knocked it to No. 3 in early February. After that, it rose back to No. 2, staying afloat behind the following weekends’ No. 1 titles Magic Mike’s Last Dance and Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, with previous titles dropping too quickly to put up much of a fight.
Per Deadline, Thursday previews indicate that the smash hit Avatar: The Way of Water could potentially fall to No. 4 by the end of the weekend. Yesterday it only made half a million behind Cocaine Bear at $2 million and Jesus Revolution at $3 million. While it is unclear whether those two films will swap places by the end of the weekend, it seems determined that Ant-Man will claim No. 1, leaving Avatar 2 to drop to 4, the lowest it has charted since its premiere.
When Will Avatar: The Way of Water Drop Out of the Top 5?
Although Avatar: The Way of Water may be taking a big hit this weekend, it has more than proven its ability to fight to maintain a place in the domestic box office. It’s entirely possible that the Oscar-nominated Avatar sequel could rise back into the Top 3 next weekend. Though Ant-Man will likely prevent it from ever reaching No. 1 again, it could stick around in the Top 5 for quite a few weeks yet.
Avatar 2‘s longevity in the Top 5 depends on how many of the upcoming theatrical releases will have the kind of staying power to fill out the top slots of the chart for more than one weekend. While there are quite a few films coming up that are projected to open strong, they will need more than a good opening weekend to muscle Avatar away from the throne, as it seems likely that both Jesus Revolution and the viral Cocaine Bear will drop reasonably quickly after one week. It will probably take until at least the end of March for Avatar to dip to No. 6 or lower.
With five major releases opening each weekend in March, this could provide the buildup needed to topple Avatar: The Way of Water once and for all. By the end of the month, theaters will be inundated with screenings of the franchise tentpoles Creed III, Scream 6, Shazam! Fury of the Gods, John Wick: Chapter 4, and Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves. While they might not have the power individually, together these films might prove to be a substantial box office juggernaut capable of taking on Cameron.
More: Avatar: All 15 Na’vi Clans Explained (Cultures, Locations & Inspirations)